Future Commercial Aircraft 1

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Future Commercial Aircraft November 2008 Professor Andrew Walker Christine Bowling 1 AEROSPACE MARKET CLASSIFICATION OF AEROSPACE MARKET ACCORDING TO AIRCRAFT TYPE COMMERCIAL AEROSPACE REGIONAL JET GENERAL AVIATION HELICOPTER DEFENCE SPACE -Narrow-body Aircraft - Wide-body Aircraft -Turboprop - Jet - Piston - Turboprop - Bizjet - Civil - Military -Fighter -Ground attacker -Bomber -Satellite -Launch Vehicle -Trainer -UAV Global Market 2008 $51.0bn $7.7bn $11.4bn $9.2bn $36.9bn $17.2bn AGENDA 1. Commercial Demand 2. Future Aircraft 3. Composites – Design & Manufacturing 4. Carbon Fibre 3 1. Commercial – Demand Forecast 4 World Passenger Air Travel in 2008 16.4% in 2022 18.4% in 2022 9.7% 25.9% 9.5% 14% 1.4% 9.7% 2.5% 2.6% Region Africa Asia, Oceania and CIS 1999-2008 203 1664 2794 285 652 3304 8902 2009-2018 354 2844 3221 270 734 3925 11248 1999-2018 457 4508 6015 555 1386 7229 20150 5 AIRCRAFT DELIVERIES Europe Middle East Central America, Caribbean & South America North America Total Fuel Burn 50% reduction in fuel consumption per passenger by 2020 20% more efficient engines 30% advanced airframes (CFRP) and aerodynamics Streamlined ATM? Cathay Pacific – 12% wasted fuel “Triple the number of passengers flying by 2020” Need to reduce emissions by 65% or better? 20 June 2005 oil hits ~ $60 per barrel in the Far East! 21 April 2006 oil hits ~ $75 per barrel in New York 20 November 2007 oil hits ~$100 per barrel At $60 Barrel - Aircraft Operations lost $6.2 billion in 2005 NB: Profit of $6 billion would represent an operating margin of 3% 6 Low Mass Transport Systems • It is common convention to describe Newton‟s 2nd Law Force = Mass x Acceleration • Thus if we reduce the mass of a moving object, we reduce the energy required to move it. Paradox – rising fuel costs and increasing vehicle/airframe weights • The passenger to weight ratio of a vehicle or aircraft is a key measure of its energy consumption efficiency. 7 Vehicle Weight by Generation Kg 1550 1450 1350 VW Vectra Golf Mk5 2 Toyota Corolla 1250 Vectra 1 Toyota Corolla Toyota Cavalier Mk3 Corolla Toyota Toyota Cavalier Corolla Corolla Mk2 VW Golf Mk2 Ford Escort MK3 VW Golf Mk4 1150 1050 Vauxhall Cavalier Mk1 Toyota Corolla VW Golf Mk3 Astra Mk4 Citroen Xsara Citroen ZX Ford Focus Astra Mk5 Ford Escort MK5 950 850 Citroen GS VW Golf Mk1 Ford Escort MK2 Astra Mk1 1974 1976 1978 Ford Escort MK4 Citroen BX Astra Mk2 Astra Mk3 Source: Jaguar YEARS 2002 2004 750 1986 1988 1990 1982 1970 1972 1980 1984 1992 1994 2000 1996 1998 8 Weight per passenger BOEING 707 1954, 700kg/passenger AIRBUS A380 2008, 1,100kg/passenger (Approx. 430k litres of fuel per day) An Economic Crisis “ COMMERCIAL AVIATION is a mature industry at the end of its current product life cycle, our Industry requires a more efficient aircraft – a composite airframe, advanced engines and electric systems!” or Business Opportunity! • • • • • • • Airbus A320 $61-$67m (inc. discount) – Annual full bill $20m JET „A‟ Fuel $0.71 per gallon in 2002. $3.92 → $4.65 in 2008 (Forecast $2.70/gal, 2009) Fuel is 50-60% of operators cost If we cut fuel burn by 30%, we save $6m/yr per single aisle A320 order book ~ 2450 aircraft, build rate ~35 aircraft per month Airbus likely to build 4000-5000 single aisle aircraft over the next 10 years General inflation will start feeding into manufacturing cost of metallic aircraft in 2009 and there is no room absorb increased prices. programmes running. - lean Air France A320 fleeting is 20+ years old and needs replacing! Evolution or Revolution • • • • • • • • • • New efficient designs sell for premium prices! (B787 Vs B767, B747-8 Vs B747 Classic) A320 enhanced, 4-5% Fuel saving, aircraft “sales” value $64m-$70m each (2010) Revised A320 with GTF powered engine (Geared Turbo Fan), 12-18% fuel saving (2014) New A32X Composite Airframe/Electric Systems/GTF Engine, 30% fuel saving? - aircraft sales value $80 – $90m each (2016) 400 aircraft per year @ $20m → $8bn extra sales “CHICKEN AND EGG” (Pratt & Witney laid the egg!) Retention value of existing metallic fleet Vs replacement requirements Customers want new aircraft now! Will Boeing lead Airbus? New mainstream single aisle manufacturer? Options “ A Revolutionary Idea changes the existing paradigm” AIRBUS A320 ENHANCED • EVOLUTION! Flying Wing Commercial Aircraft Approx. 30% improvement over 50 years 787 A300 DC-10 747 Pan-Am Tu-104 Comet Jetliner - 102 Constellation TWA Merlin Engine Pressured Cabin – Boeing 307 707, Swept Wing, Jets A380 De-regulation Composites EUREKA TIMES Activity Index 30% efficiency improvement over 5-10 years War Technology Aluminium Aeroplane DC3 Boeing 707 Golden Anniversary Timeline 1930‟s 1940‟s 1960‟s 1970‟s 2004 14 1927 – 1932 Biplanes to Monoplanes Vickers Vernon (1927) • • • • • • Boeing 247 (1932) Metal Construction Monocoque (Stressed-Skin) Construction Cantilevered Wing Variable Pitch Propeller Reliable Engine Retractable Landing Gear Armstrong Whitworth Argosy “An Operators Perspective” • 115 Aircraft 15, B747-400 13, B747-400F 58, B777-200/200ER/300 19, B777-300ER 5, A340-500 5, A380-800 (14+ hours/day) (14 hours/day) (15+ hours/day) (14 hours/day) (16+ hours/day) 4th largest airline in terms of international (RPK) Revenue Pax Kilometre 2nd largest airline in terms of FTK (Freight Tonnage Kilometre) FLEET OPERATION CHARACTERISTICS • “Operating a demanding deployment pattern while not compromising safety and high service standard demands reduction or elimination of unscheduled flight interruptions”. • The challenge “To create high reliability in an environment fraught with uncertainties” The Maintenance Bag Reliability Corrosion Fatigue Weight Costs Repairability Corrosion: 33% of aluminium floor beams replaced in B747-400 after 5 years (25 man hours each beam) No corrosion in CFRP B777-200/300s after 10 years! Worries 1. Insidious mode of failure. Aluminium Cracking Propagation is well understood. February 1989, SIA, “ Composite Rudder Panel bulging & billowing wind” (3 months repair + similar defect on 2 other aircraft) Susceptibility to Heat Cold and Heat “SIA lost a portion of thrust reverse in December 2007”. Overheating of CFRP by hot air. Cold also a problem 50°c! Full or Zero Repair Approach NDT Limitations “Quick & dirty option” 2. 3. 4. Consequence of Unscheduled Event Conclusions “Composites enable us to do more with less” “Next Quantum leap involves making detection of defects and repair actions simpler and more convenient” “The ultimate challenge is to have a new composite material that has active health monitoring features embedded, to accurately pre-empt failures” The Goal is to eliminate all unscheduled events “In this way we would be the „master of the situation‟ and not the servant” 2. FUTURE AIRCRAFT – REVOLUTION! - Payload ratio - Drag - Thrust 21 FUTURE AIRCRAFT Blended Wing Oblique Wing Activity Index (air traffic) (value) (performance) Honda Jet Airbus A350 Cessna Mustang Boeing 787 Composites Avionics ARJ 21 Payloads Eclipse 500 A380 Timeline 22 Airbus A380 (500+ passenger sector, 330 aircraft 2008-2024) A380 Fuselage Carbon composite pressure bulkhead 23 Twin Aisle Sector (Small and Large Twins) Airbus A350 (large twin aisle sector ~2300 aircraft 2008 - 2024) 35% of the aircraft, by weight, will be CFRP Conventional Derivative of the A330 Major Redesign Now 2012-2014 25 Original entry into service 2010 Boeing 787 Dreamliner (Small Twin Aisle Sector, 3200 aircraft 2008 - 2024) More than 50% composite aircraft Faustian bargain with Japan, nearly 70% foreign content, wings! Entry into service 2009 – more than ~800 orders (USD 160 billion) 30 Single Aisle (sector 17000+ aircraft 2007-2024) 100-200 Seats Airbus A320 successor (2015) higher bypass engines extended wingspan reduced rear stabilisers Boeing Y1 Project (2014) scaled version of 787? composite airframe higher aspect ratio wing design New generation centreline engine in 2014? 31 Bombardier CSeries (sector 5900 aircraft 2008- 2024) A new aircraft family to fill the sweetspot between regional jets and mid-size airlines ENTRY IN SERVICE 2013 Flying 2008 – 15% more efficient than Airbus, Boeing or Embraer 100-150 seater – 4 models / 2 fuselage lengths – maximum take-off weight 5566T – seating is 5 abreast 3-2 layout A318 A319 A320 B717 107 seats 124 seats 150 seats 107 seats $45m $55m $62m $40m PI = Range x Speed x Volume MTOW RJ’s 100 seats $30m Boeing Yellowstone Project Yellowstone is a Boeing Commercial Airplanes project to replace its entire Civil Aircraft Portfolio. (Composite aerostructures, electrical systems and new turbofan engines) Yellowstone 3 and Airbus A370 350+ seats, twin deck, twin engine HAWKER BEECHCRAFT PREMIER 1 First Commercial Aircraft to utilize an all composite fuselage manufactured using Cincinnati System Total Market for Business and General Aviation 19,700 aircraft 2005 - 2014 29,800 aircraft 2014 - 2024 Adam Aircraft Honda 39 3. COMPOSITES Weight Saving and Aerodynamics (Payload & Drag) 40 Percentage of Total Take-off Weight Payload Fuel Systems Crew etc. Power Plant Structure Vimy Commercial 1920 17 25 11 18 29 Vickers Viscount 1956 14 23 25 12 26 Modern Single Aisle 1986 24 18 18 11 29 Modern Long Range 1979 18 37 12 10 23 Concorde Supersonic 1969 9 48 10 10 23 A300-600F Boeing 737NG Freight A380-800F Freighter A400M Payload ~30 ~26 ~26 25-28 History shows we need to improve payload/performance by 30% to “ignite” a new Triz curve. 41 Performance Targets Advanced Aircraft Technologies Low Noise Weight Reduction 11% Drag Reduction 7% Engines Manufacturing Design + Advanced Materials Aerodynamics + Composites 5.5%-6.0% fuel saving 6.5% fuel saving 12% fuel saving in 2014 17%-19% saving in 2020 29% - 31% FUEL SAVING Composite Applications in the Aerospace Market Boeing 777 – Different composite material systems Source: Opportunities for Composites in the Global Aerospace Market 2004-2010, E-Composites, Inc 43 Bell Boeing V-22 Osprey Interior of V-22 wing upper surface shows the integral skin and stringers in the one-piece composite structure (picture taken from book by Bill Norton) Assembly hall in Ridley Park August 1988 V-22 wing for the GTA being fitted in a manufacturing fixture (picture taken from book by Bill Norton) (picture taken from book by Bill Norton) 44 45 46 47 50 51 52 55 Composites allow a wing to be designed with a smaller wing box Baseline B787-8 wing box aspect ratio of 10. B777-200 has a ratio of 8.7 Slimmer wings → reduced wing area → reduced drag Composites are particularly suited to very large aircraft 57 AERODYNAMICS Airflow is the greatest single determining factor for aircraft performance Cd A380 = 0.0133 Typical subsonic transport Cd = 0.012 F-8 Supercritical Wing (1973) COMPOSITE MATERIAL properties allow for the design of high aspect wings (increased laminar airflow and reduced turbulent airflow ) ratio REDUCED DRAG DUE TO ENHANCED AERODYNAMICS 58 Laminar Airflow Airflow stays attached to the wing. The greater the region of separated flow the greater the drag. Geodetic (Basketweave) Principle Barnes Wallis, Wellington Bomber Spirally wound retaining wire mesh attached to a secondary structure Geodetic line - “Shortest distance between two points on a curved surface” Loads carried by shortest route Eliminates internal load carrying structure Single Aisle, Geodetic/Carbon Composite aircraft Payload of 34% 60 GEODETIC AIRCRAFT Vickers 432 experimental wing R-100 Airship Wellington Factory 61 Design Rules 1. 2. 3. 4. Curves not Corners Linear joints rather than bolts and rivets Reduce component “part” count! Wings - high aspect ratio, avoid moving leading edge - smooth surfaces - GINA shape, changing system - reduce monuments, front spar, ribs - high flexural wing - laminar airflow! (on main wing and aerofoils) - no centre wing box (streamline wing to fuselage fairing) Fuselage - “tubes” not “panels” “Small” Empanage “Electric” not “hydraulic” Accurate assembly, water jet cutting Materials Specification – Use of different grades of carbon fibre, prepregs etc. Female Moulds 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. STRATEGY – NEW SINGLE AISLE COMPOSITE AIRFRAME AIRCRAFT Vertical Integration Design for “Use” (Design for Manufacture) Optimized Virtual Design Netshape woven textiles – Advanced Materials Low Cost Processing Net Shape Composites Low Cost Assembly Self Monitoring (NDT) Self Healing 25% Wt Saving - 25% reduction in manufacturing costs – 25% reduction in operating costs Timescales Operators Specification Design Concept Detailed Design Design Fix Manufacturer 0-3 years Low hanging fruit 3 years Simple Primary 5 years Medium to Large Primary 6 years Wings & Fuselage - interiors - secondary structures - fuel pipes ribs stringers floor beams general aviation components rear pressure bulkhead tail sector complex and thick sections composite pylons complete fuselage wings engines Philosophy Background Objectives Scope Constraints Assumptions Resources Deliverables Output Value FORECAST DELIVER FOR NEW AIRCRAFT Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 A320 371 389 414 414 A330-A340 71 77 87 89 A340-600 10 12 10 10 A380 1 8 30 50 A400M 0 1 12 19 Total 453 487 553 582 A350 & A32X (NEW SINGLE AISLE) Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 A350 3 65 (140) A32X 0 4 80 (150) 370 (360) 100 (140) 110 (140) 2018 130 (140) 460 (480) BOEING – B787 & Y1 (NEW SINGLE AISLE) Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 B787 0 7 49 96 148 180 200 200 200 225 200 200 1 65 180 260 450 Y1 The above are aircraft delivery dates, components generally enter the supply chain 2-3 years before delivery of the first aircraft. Both Airbus and Boeing estimate aircraft demand to be about 1000 large passenger aircraft from 2009. However, when we add forecast build numbers, the total is ~1270 aircraft/year (from 2010). Passenger travel is growing at around 6% per year. It therefore seems likely that the “1000” number is a serious underestimate. 4. CARBON FIBRE Future Demand for an Advanced Material Estimated Carbon Fibre Demand (Tonnes) 2006-2020 Confirmed Scenario 2006 Civil Aviation Existing aircraft (A320, B777 etc) B747 Replacement B777 Replacement A380 A350 B787 New B737 and A32X Military Fighters, transport, helicopters Regional Aircraft and Business Jets Total Wind Energy Sports Industrial (including gas tanks) Other uses (including anti-ballistic & medical) Grand total 2010 2020 Forecast Scenario 2020 Aluminium Model 2020 3,700 5,200 3,400 2,000 2,600 6,000 2,200 8,500 6,000 15,000 2,600 200 100 900 230 5,130 3,750 5,420 11,660 1,000 26,960 2,000 3,000 1,250 488 11,938 7,500 6,660 16,666 1,000 43,764 2,000 2,700 6,000 15,000 1,800 625 31,525 20,000 8,330 25,830 1,000 86,685 1,200 46,100 60,000 9,000 50,000 2,000 167,100 364,000