Transcript
Future Commercial Aircraft
November 2008
Professor Andrew Walker Christine Bowling
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AEROSPACE MARKET
CLASSIFICATION OF AEROSPACE MARKET ACCORDING TO AIRCRAFT TYPE
COMMERCIAL AEROSPACE REGIONAL JET GENERAL AVIATION HELICOPTER DEFENCE SPACE
-Narrow-body Aircraft - Wide-body Aircraft
-Turboprop - Jet
- Piston - Turboprop - Bizjet
- Civil - Military
-Fighter -Ground attacker -Bomber
-Satellite -Launch Vehicle
-Trainer
-UAV
Global
Market 2008 $51.0bn $7.7bn $11.4bn $9.2bn $36.9bn $17.2bn
AGENDA
1. Commercial Demand
2. Future Aircraft 3. Composites – Design & Manufacturing 4. Carbon Fibre
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1. Commercial – Demand Forecast
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World Passenger Air Travel in 2008
16.4% in 2022 18.4% in 2022
9.7% 25.9%
9.5% 14% 1.4%
9.7%
2.5% 2.6%
Region Africa Asia, Oceania and CIS 1999-2008 203 1664 2794 285 652 3304 8902 2009-2018 354 2844 3221 270 734 3925 11248 1999-2018 457 4508 6015 555 1386 7229 20150
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AIRCRAFT DELIVERIES
Europe Middle East Central America, Caribbean & South America North America Total
Fuel Burn
50% reduction in fuel consumption per passenger by 2020
20% more efficient engines 30% advanced airframes (CFRP) and aerodynamics Streamlined ATM?
Cathay Pacific – 12% wasted fuel
“Triple the number of passengers flying by 2020” Need to reduce emissions by 65% or better?
20 June 2005 oil hits ~ $60 per barrel in the Far East! 21 April 2006 oil hits ~ $75 per barrel in New York 20 November 2007 oil hits ~$100 per barrel At $60 Barrel - Aircraft Operations lost $6.2 billion in 2005
NB: Profit of $6 billion would represent an operating margin of 3%
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Low Mass Transport Systems
• It is common convention to describe Newton‟s 2nd Law Force = Mass x Acceleration • Thus if we reduce the mass of a moving object, we reduce the energy required to move it.
Paradox – rising fuel costs and increasing vehicle/airframe weights
• The passenger to weight ratio of a vehicle or aircraft is a key measure of its energy consumption efficiency.
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Vehicle Weight by Generation
Kg
1550
1450
1350
VW Vectra Golf Mk5 2 Toyota Corolla
1250
Vectra 1 Toyota Corolla Toyota Cavalier Mk3 Corolla Toyota Toyota Cavalier Corolla Corolla Mk2 VW Golf Mk2 Ford Escort MK3
VW Golf Mk4
1150
1050
Vauxhall Cavalier Mk1 Toyota Corolla
VW Golf Mk3
Astra Mk4 Citroen Xsara Citroen ZX
Ford Focus
Astra Mk5
Ford Escort MK5
950
850
Citroen GS VW Golf Mk1
Ford Escort MK2 Astra Mk1
1974 1976 1978
Ford Escort MK4 Citroen BX Astra Mk2
Astra Mk3
Source: Jaguar
YEARS
2002 2004
750 1986 1988 1990 1982 1970 1972 1980 1984 1992 1994
2000
1996
1998
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Weight per passenger
BOEING 707 1954, 700kg/passenger
AIRBUS A380 2008, 1,100kg/passenger
(Approx. 430k litres of fuel per day)
An Economic Crisis
“ COMMERCIAL AVIATION is a mature industry at the end of its current product life cycle, our Industry requires a more efficient aircraft – a composite airframe, advanced engines and electric systems!”
or Business Opportunity!
• • • • • • • Airbus A320 $61-$67m (inc. discount) – Annual full bill $20m JET „A‟ Fuel $0.71 per gallon in 2002. $3.92 → $4.65 in 2008 (Forecast $2.70/gal, 2009) Fuel is 50-60% of operators cost If we cut fuel burn by 30%, we save $6m/yr per single aisle A320 order book ~ 2450 aircraft, build rate ~35 aircraft per month Airbus likely to build 4000-5000 single aisle aircraft over the next 10 years General inflation will start feeding into manufacturing cost of metallic aircraft in 2009 and there is no room absorb increased prices. programmes running. - lean
Air France A320 fleeting is 20+ years old and needs replacing!
Evolution or Revolution
• • • • • • • • • • New efficient designs sell for premium prices! (B787 Vs B767, B747-8 Vs B747 Classic) A320 enhanced, 4-5% Fuel saving, aircraft “sales” value $64m-$70m each (2010) Revised A320 with GTF powered engine (Geared Turbo Fan), 12-18% fuel saving (2014) New A32X Composite Airframe/Electric Systems/GTF Engine, 30% fuel saving? - aircraft sales value $80 – $90m each (2016) 400 aircraft per year @ $20m → $8bn extra sales “CHICKEN AND EGG” (Pratt & Witney laid the egg!) Retention value of existing metallic fleet Vs replacement requirements Customers want new aircraft now! Will Boeing lead Airbus? New mainstream single aisle manufacturer?
Options
“ A Revolutionary Idea changes the existing paradigm”
AIRBUS A320 ENHANCED
• EVOLUTION!
Flying Wing
Commercial Aircraft
Approx. 30% improvement over 50 years
787 A300 DC-10 747 Pan-Am Tu-104 Comet Jetliner - 102 Constellation TWA Merlin Engine Pressured Cabin – Boeing 307 707, Swept Wing, Jets A380
De-regulation
Composites
EUREKA TIMES
Activity Index
30% efficiency improvement over 5-10 years
War Technology Aluminium Aeroplane DC3
Boeing 707 Golden Anniversary
Timeline
1930‟s
1940‟s
1960‟s
1970‟s
2004
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1927 – 1932 Biplanes to Monoplanes
Vickers Vernon (1927)
• • • • • •
Boeing 247 (1932)
Metal Construction Monocoque (Stressed-Skin) Construction Cantilevered Wing Variable Pitch Propeller Reliable Engine Retractable Landing Gear
Armstrong Whitworth Argosy
“An Operators Perspective”
• 115 Aircraft 15, B747-400 13, B747-400F 58, B777-200/200ER/300 19, B777-300ER 5, A340-500 5, A380-800 (14+ hours/day) (14 hours/day) (15+ hours/day) (14 hours/day) (16+ hours/day)
4th largest airline in terms of international (RPK) Revenue Pax Kilometre 2nd largest airline in terms of FTK (Freight Tonnage Kilometre)
FLEET OPERATION CHARACTERISTICS
• “Operating a demanding deployment pattern while not compromising safety and high service standard demands reduction or elimination of unscheduled flight interruptions”.
• The challenge “To create high reliability in an environment fraught with uncertainties”
The Maintenance Bag
Reliability
Corrosion
Fatigue Weight
Costs Repairability
Corrosion:
33% of aluminium floor beams replaced in B747-400 after 5 years (25 man hours each beam) No corrosion in CFRP B777-200/300s after 10 years!
Worries
1. Insidious mode of failure. Aluminium Cracking Propagation is well understood. February 1989, SIA, “ Composite Rudder Panel bulging & billowing wind” (3 months repair + similar defect on 2 other aircraft)
Susceptibility to Heat Cold and Heat “SIA lost a portion of thrust reverse in December 2007”. Overheating of CFRP by hot air. Cold also a problem 50°c! Full or Zero Repair Approach NDT Limitations “Quick & dirty option”
2.
3. 4.
Consequence of Unscheduled Event
Conclusions
“Composites enable us to do more with less” “Next Quantum leap involves making detection of defects and repair actions simpler and more convenient” “The ultimate challenge is to have a new composite material that has active health monitoring features embedded, to accurately pre-empt failures”
The Goal is to eliminate all unscheduled events
“In this way we would be the „master of the situation‟ and not the servant”
2. FUTURE AIRCRAFT – REVOLUTION!
- Payload ratio
- Drag - Thrust
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FUTURE AIRCRAFT
Blended Wing
Oblique Wing
Activity Index (air traffic) (value) (performance)
Honda Jet
Airbus A350
Cessna Mustang
Boeing 787
Composites Avionics
ARJ 21
Payloads
Eclipse 500
A380
Timeline
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Airbus A380 (500+ passenger sector, 330 aircraft 2008-2024)
A380 Fuselage
Carbon composite pressure bulkhead
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Twin Aisle Sector (Small and Large Twins)
Airbus A350
(large twin aisle sector ~2300 aircraft 2008 - 2024)
35% of the aircraft, by weight, will be CFRP
Conventional Derivative of the A330
Major Redesign Now 2012-2014
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Original entry into service 2010
Boeing 787 Dreamliner
(Small Twin Aisle Sector, 3200 aircraft 2008 - 2024)
More than 50% composite aircraft
Faustian bargain with Japan, nearly 70% foreign content, wings! Entry into service 2009 – more than ~800 orders (USD 160 billion)
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Single Aisle (sector 17000+ aircraft 2007-2024)
100-200 Seats
Airbus A320 successor (2015)
higher bypass engines extended wingspan reduced rear stabilisers
Boeing Y1 Project (2014) scaled version of 787? composite airframe higher aspect ratio wing design
New generation centreline engine in 2014?
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Bombardier CSeries (sector 5900 aircraft 2008- 2024)
A new aircraft family to fill the sweetspot between regional jets and mid-size airlines ENTRY IN SERVICE 2013
Flying 2008 – 15% more efficient than Airbus, Boeing or Embraer 100-150 seater – 4 models / 2 fuselage lengths – maximum take-off weight 5566T – seating is 5 abreast 3-2 layout
A318 A319 A320 B717
107 seats 124 seats 150 seats 107 seats
$45m $55m $62m $40m
PI = Range x Speed x Volume MTOW
RJ’s
100 seats
$30m
Boeing Yellowstone Project
Yellowstone is a Boeing Commercial Airplanes project to replace its entire Civil Aircraft Portfolio. (Composite aerostructures, electrical systems and new turbofan engines)
Yellowstone 3 and Airbus A370 350+ seats, twin deck, twin engine
HAWKER BEECHCRAFT PREMIER 1
First Commercial Aircraft to utilize an all composite fuselage manufactured using Cincinnati System
Total Market for Business and General Aviation
19,700 aircraft 2005 - 2014 29,800 aircraft 2014 - 2024
Adam Aircraft
Honda
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3. COMPOSITES
Weight Saving and Aerodynamics
(Payload & Drag)
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Percentage of Total Take-off Weight
Payload Fuel Systems Crew etc. Power Plant Structure Vimy Commercial 1920 17 25 11 18 29 Vickers Viscount 1956 14 23 25 12 26 Modern Single Aisle 1986 24 18 18 11 29 Modern Long Range 1979 18 37 12 10 23 Concorde Supersonic 1969 9 48 10 10 23
A300-600F
Boeing 737NG Freight
A380-800F Freighter
A400M
Payload
~30
~26
~26
25-28
History shows we need to improve payload/performance by 30% to “ignite” a new Triz curve.
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Performance Targets
Advanced Aircraft Technologies Low Noise
Weight Reduction
11%
Drag Reduction
7%
Engines
Manufacturing Design + Advanced Materials
Aerodynamics + Composites
5.5%-6.0% fuel saving
6.5% fuel saving
12% fuel saving in 2014 17%-19% saving in 2020
29% - 31% FUEL SAVING
Composite Applications in the Aerospace Market
Boeing 777 – Different composite material systems
Source: Opportunities for Composites in the Global Aerospace Market 2004-2010, E-Composites, Inc
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Bell Boeing V-22 Osprey
Interior of V-22 wing upper surface shows the integral skin and stringers in the one-piece composite structure (picture taken
from book by Bill Norton)
Assembly hall in Ridley Park August 1988 V-22 wing for the GTA being fitted in a manufacturing fixture (picture taken from book by Bill Norton)
(picture taken from book by Bill Norton)
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Composites allow a wing to be designed with a smaller wing box
Baseline B787-8 wing box aspect ratio of 10. B777-200 has a ratio of 8.7 Slimmer wings → reduced wing area → reduced drag
Composites are particularly suited to very large aircraft
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AERODYNAMICS
Airflow is the greatest single determining factor for aircraft performance
Cd A380 = 0.0133
Typical subsonic transport Cd = 0.012
F-8 Supercritical Wing (1973)
COMPOSITE MATERIAL properties allow for the design of high aspect wings (increased laminar airflow and reduced turbulent airflow )
ratio
REDUCED DRAG DUE TO ENHANCED AERODYNAMICS
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Laminar Airflow
Airflow stays attached to the wing. The greater the region of separated flow the greater the drag.
Geodetic (Basketweave) Principle
Barnes Wallis, Wellington Bomber
Spirally wound retaining wire mesh attached to a secondary structure Geodetic line - “Shortest distance between two points on a curved surface”
Loads carried by shortest route
Eliminates internal load carrying structure
Single Aisle, Geodetic/Carbon Composite aircraft Payload of 34%
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GEODETIC AIRCRAFT
Vickers 432 experimental wing
R-100 Airship
Wellington Factory
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Design Rules
1. 2. 3. 4. Curves not Corners Linear joints rather than bolts and rivets Reduce component “part” count! Wings - high aspect ratio, avoid moving leading edge - smooth surfaces - GINA shape, changing system - reduce monuments, front spar, ribs - high flexural wing - laminar airflow! (on main wing and aerofoils) - no centre wing box (streamline wing to fuselage fairing) Fuselage - “tubes” not “panels” “Small” Empanage “Electric” not “hydraulic” Accurate assembly, water jet cutting Materials Specification – Use of different grades of carbon fibre, prepregs etc. Female Moulds
5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
STRATEGY – NEW SINGLE AISLE COMPOSITE AIRFRAME AIRCRAFT
Vertical Integration
Design for “Use” (Design for Manufacture)
Optimized Virtual Design
Netshape woven textiles – Advanced Materials
Low Cost Processing
Net Shape Composites
Low Cost Assembly
Self Monitoring (NDT)
Self Healing
25% Wt Saving - 25% reduction in manufacturing costs – 25% reduction in operating costs
Timescales
Operators Specification Design Concept Detailed Design Design Fix Manufacturer
0-3 years
Low hanging fruit
3 years
Simple Primary
5 years
Medium to Large Primary
6 years
Wings & Fuselage
- interiors - secondary structures - fuel pipes
ribs stringers floor beams general aviation components
rear pressure bulkhead tail sector complex and thick sections composite pylons
complete fuselage wings engines
Philosophy
Background Objectives Scope Constraints Assumptions Resources Deliverables Output Value
FORECAST DELIVER FOR NEW AIRCRAFT
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010
A320 371 389 414 414
A330-A340 71 77 87 89
A340-600 10 12 10 10
A380 1 8 30 50
A400M 0 1 12 19
Total 453 487 553 582
A350 & A32X (NEW SINGLE AISLE) Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 A350 3 65 (140) A32X 0 4 80 (150) 370 (360)
100 (140) 110 (140)
2018
130 (140)
460 (480)
BOEING – B787 & Y1 (NEW SINGLE AISLE) Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 B787 0 7 49 96 148 180 200 200 200 225 200 200 1 65 180 260 450 Y1
The above are aircraft delivery dates, components generally enter the supply chain 2-3 years before delivery of the first aircraft. Both Airbus and Boeing estimate aircraft demand to be about 1000 large passenger aircraft from 2009. However, when we add forecast build numbers, the total is ~1270 aircraft/year (from 2010). Passenger travel is growing at around 6% per year. It therefore seems likely that the “1000” number is a serious underestimate.
4. CARBON FIBRE
Future Demand for an Advanced Material
Estimated Carbon Fibre Demand (Tonnes) 2006-2020
Confirmed Scenario 2006 Civil Aviation Existing aircraft (A320, B777 etc) B747 Replacement B777 Replacement A380 A350 B787 New B737 and A32X Military Fighters, transport, helicopters Regional Aircraft and Business Jets Total Wind Energy Sports Industrial (including gas tanks) Other uses (including anti-ballistic & medical) Grand total 2010 2020 Forecast Scenario 2020 Aluminium Model 2020
3,700
5,200
3,400
2,000 2,600 6,000 2,200 8,500 6,000 15,000 2,600
200 100 900 230 5,130 3,750 5,420 11,660 1,000 26,960
2,000 3,000 1,250 488 11,938 7,500 6,660 16,666 1,000 43,764
2,000 2,700 6,000 15,000 1,800 625 31,525 20,000 8,330 25,830 1,000 86,685
1,200 46,100 60,000 9,000 50,000 2,000 167,100 364,000