Transcript
Fleet Strategy
Investor Day 2007 Frankfurt, January 25th, 2007
Nico Buchholz SVP Corporate Fleet Deutsche Lufthansa AG
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Overview
Strategy
Evaluation
Implementation
Conclusion
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Lufthansa Corporate Fleet
Is responsible for Fleet Strategy, Development of Aircraft together with the Manufacturer, as well as Aircraft Purchases and Sales within the Lufthansa Group. This includes § passenger aircraft from 30 seats to 500 seats § cargo aircraft This includes the same activities for the engine market. Additionally the Aircraft Asset Management is also performed along with Aircraft Leasing Activities.
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Each market needs a different approach
market driven requirement possible aircraft types
A380 B747-8
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550 Seater 400 Seater
Longhaul
30
53
200-300 Seater
A350/B787
2006
2010
298
73
150-250 Seater 80-150 Seater
A320Fam/B737Fam A320Fam/B737Fam CRJ/C-Series/EMB/Sukhoi CRJ/EMB/Sukhoi
Shorthaul
119
106
50-70 Seater
2006
2010
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Life Cycle: The Airline perspective (> 30 years)
Aircraft Asset Management = Corporate fleet
Plan Buy Fly Sell
Phase-out & remarketing
Strategy/ Operational Rough Early Final Detailed Longterm Planning specification negotiation specification negotiation planning Aircraft evaluation and manufacturer discussions Aircraft evaluation and manufacturer discussions
Contract
Controlling
Finance
Tax Balance Sheet Financing
Source: Corporate Fleet
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Life Cycle: The Manufacturer
Perspective
Action here has the most leverage on costs later on, here, in the business envelope of LH.
Concept Development
Program Definition
Detailed Design
Test & Evaluation
Production
Ops & Support
Disposal
80% of costs committed, <15% incurred 1. Engage the LC before acquisition / operations
20% of costs committed, >75% incurred Enhance Shareholder value 2. Acquisition process 5. Disposal process
The majority of leverage into LH s business case appears to be here. This means being proactive as an Airline, early in the LC.
Source: Corporate Fleet Strategy and Aircraft Evaluation
4. Feedback loop to transmit & secure targets set 3. LH b.c during acquisition process Ops process
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The STRATEGY of today: focused on delivering the best value proposition for LH and linked to the output of the overall strategy process
Market driven corporate strategy
Maximize shareholder value (network, KSF s (fleet), restrictions (risk + finance)
Max. Value = Fleet Strategy Fleet Strategy
Opportunity, Risk, Scale, Buildup
Situation audit
Gap analysis level of fit (fleet) Potential scenarios fleet development
Benchmark Quantitative Evaluation of scenarios Qualitative
Source: Corporate Fleet Strategy and Aircraft Evaluation
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Evaluation of Life Cycle Benefit
Delivery Date
nts
Ca
sh
Op
Technology
era t
Price
ing
Co
st
De ice r eP par S
vel
e opm
LH Strategy
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Aircraft Choice
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Definitions as used
Aircraft related MTOW: max permissible weight of the aircraft at the start of the takeoff roll MEW: weight of the structure, power plant, furnishings, systems and other equipment that are considered an integral part of the aircraft MZFW: maximum weight permitted before usable fuel is loaded into the airplane OEW: manufacturer's empty weight plus the operator's items COC: all cost to operate an aircraft (fuel, crew, maintenance, landing and air traffic control fees, except capital cost and insurance) Range: range in still air, in nautical miles SFC: Specific Fuel Consumption = the fuel efficiency of an engine design. It measures the fuel needed to provide a given thrust over a certain period of operation (in kg fuel per lbs thrust) Other expressions Evaluation of an Aircraft: considers technological impacts and COC over the operational life span is not related to price at the initial phase is not linked to strategy at the initial phase Lufthansa life cycle: From Entry Into Service (EIS) at LH until and including divestment from LH Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) life cycle = From conception of programme, through production phase, until fleet size has declined to a minimum operational fleet 9
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Passenger Airline: Where we are, how we got there
1970 ------ >>
And where to go
2006 >2014
A380
B747-8
16F/128C
Intercont
115 Seats
200 300 seats wide body
Cont
94 Seats
100 250 seats short haul
70 Seats
Regional Aircraft
Source: Corporate Fleet Strategy and Aircraft Evaluation
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The last long-haul aircraft rollover can be measured. It proved our assessment.
A340-300
TECHNOLOGY
DC-10
1989 Example: A340 vs. DC-10
2-Man vs. 3-Man Cockpit - 8% Fuel-Consumption-Reduction - 25% Maintenance - 9% Extended Range (A340 vs. DC-10) Commonality to A320-Fleet Less Noise More Comfort (unit cost reduction) .
Source: Corporate Fleet Strategy and Aircraft Evaluation
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Overview
Strategy
Evaluation
Implementation
Conclusion
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The target
OEW
Range =
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To manage cost is to understand the levers that impact each cost element
100%
Cost elements have to be measured for their competitive sustainability Fuel Total Maintenance Cost Landing Fees Handling Fees Navigation Fees Cockpit Crews Cabin Crews
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typical cash operating cost (COC) of long haul aircraft
Source: Corporate Fleet Strategy and Aircraft Evaluation
Technology assessment leads to cash operating cost sensitivities over our lifecycle
Progress is expected to focus on detail improvements of aerodynamics, engines, production and systems
Structural/Material
Carbon fibre; Composites New alloys; Glare Laser beam welding Maintenance cost
Aerodynamic/Flightmechanics
Larger laminar area Adaptive wing Riblets Optimized stability Reduction of noise
Cabin design
Lower deck seating New Entertainment systems New Catering Systemes
Engines
Pic-Source: NASA
Fuel burn reduction Slow rotating fan New compressor-/turbine profiles New alloys Variable pitch fan Low emission combustor / double stage burner Noise reduction
Source: Corporate Fleet Strategy and Aircraft Evaluation
Systems / ATC
New Cockpit-Architecture Fly by light Integrated networks & ground data exchange/link More electric / less hydraulic New APU technology / fuel cell Free flight concept
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Impact of Fuel price
Source: TECSON Source: TECSON
Source: TECSON Source: TECSON
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Current programs show a significant improvement in specific fuel consumption (sfc)
1980s 1990s 2000 >2007
Datum =>
Delta sfc (%)
~ 15 % improvement
Source: Corporate Fleet Strategy and Aircraft Evaluation
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Aircraft Maintenance
Engine:
i.e. materials, repair procedures, design of engines, less parts reduce cost i.e. landing gear and brakes, new materials, multiple source and the braking procedures reduce cost self diagnostic maintenance and optimised design reduce cost (i.e. simplified flap system, electrically instead of hydraulically activated)
Components:
Airframe:
*) slices not corresponding to absolut levels
Source: Corporate Fleet
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Dealing with the manufacturers
multiple supplier strategy for key elements
AIRBUS
GE
PW
RR
Bombardier
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Embraer
Sukhoi
Fees
for
Navigation
Landing
Handling
Input
MTOW
MTOW
Payload + Space
As payload is the only driver yielding revenues, thus weights are critical in any evaluation.
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The operating cost chart enables us to easily position comparable aircraft
15% 10%
relative unit cost per seat
Type X shortened
Decrease aircraft size
unattractive area
5% 0% -5% -10% -10%
Type X
New Technology -5% 0%
Increase aircraft size
Type X stretched
5% 10% 15% 20%
relative cost per trip
Source: Corporate Fleet Strategy and Aircraft Evaluation
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Overview
Strategy
Evaluation
Implementation
Conclusion
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Putting strategy and evaluation into practice
Decisions on fleet go beyond economics
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The B747-8 will be helping to optimize the capacity staggering of the Lufthansa long-range fleet, while also offering an attractive cost position
Long haul
550
A380-800 549
450
+ 34% approx. 410 B747-8
B747-400 344
350 + 34% 306 250 221 A340-300 A340-600
+ 38%
Source: Corporate Fleet Strategy and Aircraft Evaluation
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Quiet for Communities
Frankfurt/Main Airport, Germany RWY 25R 85 dBA NADP 1 (ICAO-A) Takeoff noise contours
6000nmi Mission
Hattersheim Kelsterbach
747-8 B747-8
Raunheim
747-400 B747-400
Walldorf
and reducing emissions
Source: Boeing
FRA-11152006001
COPYRIGHT © 2006 THE BOEING COMPANY
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Competitive Positioning
§ Own assets
§ § § no cash out for leases and no worry on redelivery cost flexible dispositon and planning for replacement, growth and reduction well balanced mix between depreciated and new assets advantage over i.e. 767 fleets by using the A330 747-8 entry into service in 2010 offers a position close to the larger aircraft first on 747-8 unique fast delivery slot management within the September 2006 order: A320s end of 2007, A330s early 2008
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Modern fuel efficient fleet to hedge against fuel price fluctuations
§ §
§
Early delivery dates
§ §
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Capacity management harmonized through central unit allows less expenditure for requirements across the group Lufthansa, Germanwings, Swiss, use the same aircraft pool Aircraft sizes suited to allow operations on frequency driven routes and size driven routes
§
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To close: the constant challenge
Planning of invest and capacities requires a long term fleet strategy and a broad horizon. Fleet decisions on types have to satisfy multiple criteria such as taking into account
Homogeneous fleet Economies of Scale Fleet commonality Innovative aircraft
conflicting interests versus Operational flexibility versus Product differentiation versus Risk mitigation/-spread versus Low capital expenditure
The target of Fleet Development: Determine a low complexity fleet, market driven multiple aircraft sizes offering high flexibility in operation and performance while being state of the (technical) art and sustainable highly economical.
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Q&A
Nico Buchholz SVP Corporate Fleet Deutsche Lufthansa AG
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Disclaimer
This presentation is for informational purposes only, contains preliminary financial and other information about Lufthansa and is subject to updating, revision, amendment and completion. This presentation does not and is not intended to constitute or contain any offer of securities for sale or a solicitation of an offer to purchase any securities of Deutsche Lufthansa AG or any other company and neither this presentation nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. Certain statements contained in this presentation may be statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements or trend information that are based on management's current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties. In addition to statements which are forwardlooking by reason of context, including without limitation, statements referring to risk limitations, operational profitability, financial strength, performance targets, profitable growth opportunities, and risk adequate pricing, as well as the words "may, will, should, expects, plans, intends, anticipates, believes, estimates, predicts, or continue", "potential, future, or further", and similar expressions identify forwardlooking statements. Actual results, performance or events may differ materially from those in such statements. Lufthansa assumes no obligation to update any such statements or any other information contained herein.
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